Author: Michael Klare
From Publishers Weekly
Looking at the "new international energy order," author and journalist Klare (Resource Wars) finds America's "sole superpower" status falling to the increasing influence of "petro-superpowers" like Russia and "Chindia." Klare identifies and analyzes the major players as well as the playing field, positing armed conflict and environmental disaster in the balance. Currently in the lead is emerging energy superpower Russia, which has gained "immense geopolitical influence" selling oil and natural gas to Europe and Asia; the rapidly-developing economies of China and India follow. Klare also warns of the danger of a new cold-war environment that would suck up resources that should go toward "environmentally sensitive energy alternatives." To avert catastrophe, he urges a U.S. diplomatic initiative to build collaboration with China (rapidly moving to second place in carbon emissions) to develop alternative energy resources, such as biodiesel fuels; ultra-light, ultra-efficient vehicles; and an innovative plan to use new coal plants, currently in-development, to strip carbon waste which can then be buried underground. Well-researched and incisive throughout, Klare provides a comprehensive but approachable overview of a complex problem, and offers promising policy alternatives to disaster.
When the Cold war ended, Americans generally assumed the U.S. would enjoy unchallenged preponderance in the world. Instead, Russia now has reemerged as a major actor and the U.S. has, in contrast, sometimes found itself cajoling foreign suppliers to increase output. Meanwhile, China's foreign currency reserves in late 2007 were $1.4 trillion, and rich Arab states recently invested $20 billion into Citibank.
According to the U.S. DOE, world energy supplies must increase 57% over the next quarter-century. This will not be met by increased alternative fuels - existing sources will provide 87% of the total need, but be harder to obtain.
Many believe this DOE projection of increased supply is optimistic - it counts on a 67% increase from Saudi Arabia. Nearly half of current oil production comes from 116 fields - all but four were discovered over 25 years ago, and many are showing signs of diminished capacity. Regardless, current consumption is double the discovery rate. As for alternative sources, it takes about 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas to produce 1 million barrels of oil from tar sands, as well as enormous quantities of scare water. (Gas finds are similarly declining - production is expected to peak soon as well, and this is not even counting increased demand due to Kyoto promises to use less-polluting fuel.) Corn is no cure either - considerable energy is used producing ethanol and it already is linked to substantial protests over increased food prices.
America's military used 1 gallon of petroleum/soldier/day during WWII, 4 in Gulf War I, and 16 currently in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Other trends are that oil control is increasingly moving into national hands (eg. Russia, Venezuela), and oil companies are increasing their clout (and profits) by moving into refining, transportation, and marketing. Klare also tells us that coal production is expected to peak in the late 2020's, and nuclear fuel availability to last only 40 years - again assuming no increase in utilization.
Still another problem: Increasing "gunboat diplomacy" (eg. U.S. fleet sailing through the Straits of Hormuz, China and Japan squaring off over a large off-shore gas field that both claim, new U.S. and Russian bases in the "stans," and alliances between various nations to protect oil interests), and arming of second/third-level nations in Africa and the mid-East by the U.S., Russia, and China.
Klare suggests the U.S. begin working collaboratively with China, and increased research on alternatives fuel sources. Conservation is another key opportunity - for example, Paul Krugman's 5/12/08 column points out that France uses only half the per capita oil of the U.S., and is hardly considered an impoverished nation.
